The other day I saw a comical meme depicting a young person being puzzled as to how to use a dial telephone. If we are not there already, the day will come when almost nobody will remember ever “dialing” someone’s phone number.
I am beginning to think that there will be a day when there will be few people nominally “in translation” who will remember the days when earning a living by translating was possible. By that time in the not-too-distant future, most people in need of translation will have learned as part of their education that machine translation is available (no need to invoke the buzzword AI, since “translacide by MT” was happening way before the Great 2020s AI Hype), and that will cause a drastic deprecation of the efforts necessary to learn a foreign language.
People who persist in learning foreign languages will have been told—the universities having finally agreed to recognize reality—that there are few careers open to people who want to translate, but that they might be able to make some money post-editing machine translation output if they have no other employment paths available.
The above-noted day will surely come, but when?
Although most commercial translators working in fields with traditionally high demand will cease to receive much translation work in perhaps two to three years (probably around mid-2027 for Japanese-to-English translators), they will still remember the good old days. Some of them will move away from translation and language-related careers entirely and, when you take into account the newcomers that will have been groomed to be post-editors coming into the labor market, I would think that even the memory of actually doing translation will be pretty much gone in about 20 years.
Perhaps more than in the past, newcomers studying Japanese will have hopes of doing translation in creative or entertainment-related fields, but literature was never easy as an income-earning profession (even for original authors), and games and subtitling—highly competitive even before the glut of translators resulting from MT adoption—will not be attractive from the standpoint of earnings, however popular and exciting those fields may be.
It’s coming. In fact, it is here for some people.